分析師：看漲黃金，突破1400美元僅是時間問題
Gold prices are just starting their recovery versus risk assets, with additional stock-market volatility clearing the path to retest the $1,400 an ounce level, according to Bloomberg Intelligence (BI).
“Volatility mean reversion, which is historically just a matter of time, may put precious metals on a path to new highs,” BI senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone said in a June update.
The yellow metal is putting in higher lows, which is a sign that it is forming a stronger foundation and could hit higher levels this year, McGlone pointed out.
“Gold is building this year's price foundation above $1,260 an ounce, which indicates revisiting $1,400 resistance on the back of increasing stock-market volatility,” he said. “The significance of $1,260 -- the mean since the first Fed rate hike -- and likelihood of the CBOT S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) returning to its lifetime average near 19, support gold's foundation.”
The return of stock-market volatility is unavoidable and gold stands to benefit the most, the Bloomberg Intelligence report said.
“Gold's underperformance vs. the S&P 500 appears near an end. Our graphic depicts the per-ounce price of gold vs. the S&P 500 index in a clear downtrend since the end of 2016 , but potentially bottoming. In 2H18, the near simultaneous low in gold vs. the stock market and the one-year-ahead Fed funds future occurred with the ratio reaching a 13-year low,” McGlone wrote. “Downside in gold vs. stocks is limited near good support and particularly with futures shifting to expectations of Fed easing.”
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